Winner of the 2012 Presidential Election: Data
Now that the contentious 2012 election has finally ended, we get a chance to look back and assess what happened and why. Regardless of who you voted for, it’s impossible not to acknowledge that the real winner of the 2012 election was data.
For the first time in history, this election demonstrated the power of using analytics and numbers crunching for politics. What I find most remarkable is the rapid evolution of this change. If you look back just a few years ago, Karl Rove was widely regarded as the political mastermind of the universe. Rove’s primary innovation was the use of highly targeted direct mail campaigns to get out the evangelical and rural vote to win the 2004 election for George W. Bush. Fast-forward a few short years, and not only did Rove’s candidate lose, but the master strategist was reduced to challenging his network’s numbers geeks live on the air, only to be rebuffed.
In every way, the old guard was bested by a new generation of numbers crunchers, nerds and data geeks who leveraged data science, analytics, predictive modeling and a highly sophisticated online marketing campaign to poll, raise money and get out the vote in an unprecedented manner.
On the subject of polling, I was intrigued by Nate Silver’s incredibly accurate FiveThirtyEight blog that used a sophisticated system to synthesize dozens of national polls in a rolling average to predict the actual election results. In the run-up to the election, he even received a lot of flak from various pundits who claimed he was wrong basing on their perception on voter “enthusiasm,” “momentum” and other non-scientific observations. At the end of the day, however, data won out over hot air and punditry big time. Silver’s final tally was absolutely dead on, crushing most other national polls by a wide margin.