Assessing the USPS January Rate Hike - Start the Clock
While we still wait for the Senate Homeland and Governmental Affairs Committee to move forward with a meaningful postal reform bill (the vote to mark it up has been postponed), the Postal Regulatory Commission provided some very tough news for mailers to swallow just ahead of Christmas Day.
By a two-to-one decision, the PRC concluded that the United States Postal Service, on its second attempt to do so, did offer enough evidence that the Great Recession (2007-2009) did help generate two years of financial losses to create an "exigency" scenario—and protestations and counter evidence that volume and revenue decreases were created by other means (digital migration, Congressional mandates and such) were not enough by mailer and business groups to prevail and reject the exigency claim. Now mailers will have to suck it up—or go elsewhere with their marketing dollars, come January 25. That is when the annual Consumer Price Index-capped increase plus the exigency increase in postage is slated to take effect. Ouch!
Well, due process and due diligence had its day—a dismal one for mailers—and now a real-life experiment will happen. What will the two-year "exigency" rate hike of 4.3 percent—three times the rate of inflation when added to the already-slated CPI hike—do to marketing mail trends this time around?
When the 2007 postage increase took effect, the results were devastating for flats mailers, who endured an unexpected punishing increase.
"The 2007 rate increase was the real culprit for flats volume declines," said Hamilton Davison, president and executive director of the American Catalogers Mailers Association, recently. "The recession didn't help either, but the pullback in volume from catalog mailers, for one, was dramatic. Some of our wounds in growing our own businesses have been self-inflicted. Typically mail order businesses have 40 percent to 70 percent of their total mail volume dedicated to new customer prospecting. After the 2007 rate hike, that was cut to near zero. When you stop prospecting, sooner or later your own house file of customers deteriorates due to attrition. But by that time, a vicious cycle occurs, where there are too few new names to mail. The universe of mailable names has declined, and that is hurting the catalog industry just as the economy has been improving."
Will such a similar outcome happen now that First-Class and Standard Mailers are facing a total, and unexpected, rate hike of 6% in less than 30 days? Like it or not, the clock starts now and we shall see. For some marketers, I fear, enough is enough. And meaningful postal reform still waits in the wings.