Database: Model Behavior
4. Delayed impact? Not all results are instantaneous. Many campaigns can have a lag effect of weeks or months to see results. Some can trickle in for many months, even years. That means results from prior campaigns can get confused with results from a current campaign. Many solutions address this as a data-gathering issue, but that is rarely the best option. A good model accounts for delayed results by, once again, using at least two years of accurate data to correlate each campaign stimulation with results over time.
5. Spillover responses? Just because a call to action instructs consumers to go to a particular Web page doesn't mean they'll go there. They may go to another related Web page. Or they may find the number to customer service and call to place a new order. Consumers are wily, and many are very good at dodging the usual tracking mechanisms. The only realistic way to account for this is to measure and develop response models for each directly tracked campaign, then measure all results across all channels from the total marketing spend and compare-that's when you can detect and account for spillover responses.
6. Cross-media influence? Messages in one medium can affect responses to messages in other media channels. That's especially important for companies that market heavily across dozens of media. Accounting for these crossover effects (also known as "media synergy") can become highly complex and require very sophisticated and customized algorithms. Media mix models in particular must be able to correctly assess these effects to give accurate predictive results critical to budget decisions.
7. Data series that influence other data series? This is a sophisticated question that only the most advanced analytic models address. But the concept is not difficult to understand. Many models treat different series of data as either independent or having a static correlation, meaning if one changes at a certain time, the other changes predictably at that same time. But that's almost never the complete picture.