I think it was 2002 or 2003. The occasion I recall was US Navy war games, and the guys with all the clout were the U.S. Navy. “David” was a retired US Admiral who was brought back into service to form a guerilla flotilla, and promptly obliterated the Navy.
The event hit the media at the time, but was promptly pushed aside. I don’t remember the Admiral’s name. I have searched for this several times, but cannot find a record of it. Your resources are much greater than mine, so you may be able to locate it.
I have learned many times over that (1) the patient knows his problem better than the doctor does, (2) my clients (I am an independent Management Consultant) know their problems much better than I can, (3) the overriding problem confronting the world is “over-specialization”, and (4) (after living 13 years in a country neighboring Iraq) anyone who though that the outcome in Iraq would be different than it is has never lived in the Middle East.
As an Army Vet (8 Aug 66 - 7 Aug 72) D-6-2, 101st Airborne and former instructor at Ft. Lewis WA whose specialty was Techniques of Guerrilla Warfare, I can tell you that your reference to Dien Bien Phu is at best a poor analogy. For more accurate analogies I suggest you think Bataan or, better yet, Stalingrad.
It takes 14 lbs. of supplies (Water, Food, Ammo, Fuel, etc.) to sustain 1 trooper for 1 day in static DEFENSIVE MODE and THREE to FIVE times that in an attack mode. Static defensive mode is just sitting there dealing with little or no enemy aggression. Attack mode is defending against concerted enemy assaults (3x) or launching assaults and/or breakouts (5x).
Do the math—we have 150,000+ personnel on the ground 450+ miles (linear distance not as the crow flies) from our nearest supply port and are surrounded by 60 million+ people who would love to slit their throats. IF the Strait of Hormuz is blocked (one sunburn missile into a carrier group would do it) our guys will be cut off with little or no chance to exit and just waiting to run out of supplies. Their options will be death or surrender.