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Author, direct marketing guru, and always entertaining Denny Hatch focuses on a major story in the news and shows how businesses can take advantage of–or avoid the pitfalls from–the lessons to be learned in terms of marketing, sales, PR and communications.
Sep 30, 2008 : Vol. 4, Issue No. 54

Put a Cataloger in Charge of Wall Street!

AIG and the missing $60 billion
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IN THE NEWS
Bad Bets and Cash Crunch Pushed Ailing AIG to Brink
For three hours Tuesday evening, the board of American International Group Inc. wrestled with the government's offer: an $85 billion loan in return for surrendering control of the insurance giant. The directors were stunned by the "onerous" proposal, as one called it. They were surprised by an order to replace Chief Executive Robert Willumstad and bristled at what they considered Washington's heavy-handed treatment. One director said he felt "violated."

--Monica Langley, Deborah Solomon and Matthew Karnitsching; The Wall Street Journal, Sept. 18, 2008

This is not rocket science.

Rather it's Business Common Sense. (Hey! What great title for a newsletter!)

Next Week: How I fired 200,000 customers and saved a book club.

Takeaway Points to Consider

* Any CEO presiding over a business model that treats all customers as equals is sucking around for a bloody nose.

* The youngest cub in the catalog business knows that customers must be segregated based on performance. The simplest formula in the world of cataloging is R-F-M, or recency-frequency-monetary value. A frequent buyer who bought within the last 30 days and has spent a bunch of money with you is a customer whose behavior you know to be far more valuable than the person who bought one item two years ago and nothing since.

* The list business is a good model for all business. To be successful in renting lists, it's imperative to know the origin of each name. For example, because a person reads TIME is no indication of whether your mailing will work to TIME magazine readers. Which TIME promotion was responded to? Was it a sweepstakes? Professional voucher? Premium or double-premium offer? Six months free? Is the subscription price $19.95 while your offer is $199.50? If your effort doesn't look like any of these, skip the list. It's the thing that the person responded to that counts--the active behavior--not the passive product or service received.

* "I know of no direct marketer that spends enough time on lists."
--Dick Benson

* Robert Willumstad, CEO of AIG--believing he needed to raise $20 billion, only to find out four days later that he needed $80 billion--didn't have his hand on the tiller, relied on deeply flawed reporting systems and is ipso facto a world-class dufus, along with the officers and directors of Lehman, Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual, Wachovia, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Goldman and too many more to mention. Add to this pot the top honchos of Ford, GM and Chrysler, who just received a $25 billion bailout package from Congress, a direct result of their utter failure to understand consumer behavior vis-Ă -vis the price of oil.

* Every business model must be based on the principles of marketing (e.g., not treating all customers as equal) and the key emotional hot buttons that influence human behavior (fear - greed - guilt - anger - exclusivity - salvation - flattery - patriotism).

* Take a close and continual look at the business model you're operating under and the changing market forces working against you so you can do whatever's necessary, from tweaking to major overhaul.

Web Sites Related to Today's Edition

2008 Bailout Bill--Discussion Draft--09-28-08
http://tinyurl.com/4m2yry

"Bad Bets on the Cash Crunch Pushed Ailing AIG to Brink"
http://tinyurl.com/46sjuz

Bush Warned About Impending Disaster in 2002
http://tinyurl.com/42p9r6

Remarks by the President on the Economy, 12-17-07
http://tinyurl.com/3kbscv

How the Markets Work
http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/187.html

 
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Mind you, catalogers should know. However today many marketers use elaborated scoring techniques, kind of a black-box approach.

On the other hand, there are many sad stories of greedy catalogers that managed to choose the lowest deciles because they responded so well to revolving credit offers.

Think of Spiegel going belly-up five years ago. Read the independent auditor's report on how those guys were "netting down" the prospect file to the most responsive ones and found themselves in a complete mess.

I admit: the prospect files were cleared by the (company-owned) bank in the first place. But the bank had created nice portfolios of some good, many fair, some bad and many ugly addresses.

By netting down the clever marketers literally took the sound portfolio apart.

I agree: catalogers should do better. But there are systemic errors that can mislead even the most clever mail-order manager.
Martin
10/09/2008 at 3:05 PM
To Rob Z.
I keep seeing this "blame the CRA [Community Reinvestment Act] and the Democrats and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac" meme on blogs - probably started by Rush or one of the other right-wing bloviators.

Since the CRA was enacted in 1976(!) and Pres. Clinton signed a bill (that had massive Congressional support, BTW), there have been 20 years of Republican presidents, including 6 of the last 8 with a Republican majority Congress. If the CRA was such a bad thing, why didn't the free marketeer Republicans do anything about it?

Below is a link to an excellent column in yesterday's Wall Street Journal by Thomas Frank. The headline and subhead read" "The GOP Blames the Victim - Capitalism sure is fragile if subprime borrowers can ruin it."

http://tinyurl.com/3o2rv2

While I'm no fan of the bailout, I can't believe anyone could credibly suggest that even less regulation is the answer to these problems.
Tom S.
10/02/2008 at 3:51 PM
You want to be even more depressed...read this article about "credit default swaps". This makes subprime look like peanuts. Basically anyone can insure any financial instrument without any means to pay the insurance if it comes due. All of Wall Street use these credit default swaps as a hedge against risky financial bets. Great for collecting premiums, but should the insurance ever come due, there is nothing to pay it with. It seems to me that all of Wall Street is a house of cards to appear safe in order to collect fees. This market is completely unregulated to the tune of $55 TRILLION dollars. I thin I am going to be looking for my Guillotine building instructions soon...!
http://tinyurl.com/5yudhn
Andy
10/01/2008 at 3:23 PM
The sick thing about this is, none of the people responsible for this mess are going to go broke or lose their homes, while causing tens of thousands of ordinary Americans to do so. I mean, really, are they going to suffer any penalty besides extreme embarrassment?
Dana
10/01/2008 at 11:14 AM
Denny,
Your column today has great lessons for how non-profits can increase the return on their fund raising efforts. Your short column today is worth more than several "fund raising" books that I have slogged through over the last year. Well done!!
Tom Cannon
Tom Cannon
10/01/2008 at 10:54 AM
I'm appalled. I'm far from being a financial whiz, but there was no question in my mind that sub-prime mortgages were going to bite the asses that created them. It's a bit like Detroit, flying in the face of inevitability by building oversized gas-guzzlers that no city dweller needs (but simply has to have). Arrghhh!
John Friesen
10/01/2008 at 03:09 AM
Historically the banking industry has NOT treated all customers equally. Bankers use credit worthiness to determine eligibility and terms for loans. Some people simply could not get mortgages. When did this change? It began after the passage of the Community Reinvestment Act in 1977 and accelerated after new regulations were put in place in 1995 by Pres Clinton to make "affordable mortgages" available to low income borrowers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Community_Reinvestment_Act
This led to an explosion of subprime mortgages, amounting to as much as $1 trillion. With a crisis looming, Bush called for a new oversight committee to monitor Fannie and Freddie in 2003. But he was opposed. As the New York Times reported:
Supporters of the companies said efforts to regulate the lenders tightly under those agencies might diminish their ability to finance loans for lower-income families. . . . “These two entities — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — are not facing any kind of financial crisis,” said Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, the ranking Democrat on the Financial Services Committee. “The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.” Then in 2005, Senate Republicans, including McCain cosponsored a bill to regulate the mortgage industry, including Fannie & Freddie. It too was killed by Democratic opposition http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s109-190
Let's get our facts straight. The subprime debacle was not caused by Wall Street "greed" and the free market. It was caused by Federal interference in the mortgage market, and fueled by contributions and sweetheart deals from Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac to lawmakers who looked the other way while disaster loomed and now want to take credit for "saving" the system.
Rob Z
09/30/2008 at 7:28 PM

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