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Famous Last Words: Is Grossman’s Math Still Alive?

August 2006 By Denny Hatch
For years, the coin of the realm for magazine circulation efforts was the double postcard.

The advantages of the double postcard over a full-dress package:
• It mailed at a special low First Class rate, because if the bottom half was used, postage would be collected for mail going both directions.
• It’s quick and cheap to produce and stockpile.
• It’s easy to personalize and takes color well.
• Upfront response usually beats full-dress packages.

The disadvantages:
• Bill-me is the only payment option so pay-up is lousy.
• Can only be used for a well-known or self-descriptive product (e.g., TIME, Philadelphia magazine) going to an obvious universe.

This past June, I delivered a keynote address at the New England Direct Marketing Association meeting, where I ran into a circulation director I know. She was working for a different publication than when we first met.

“What’s your current control?” I asked.

“I’m embarrassed to say it’s a professional discount voucher. It beat out a package by [a well-known writer],” she replied.

The Ubiquitous Voucher

Vouchers have replaced double postcards as the preferred format for circulation efforts.

As near as I can figure out, the voucher mailings first became popular in the late 1980s. The first grand controls (in the mail for three consecutive years) were Pierre Volmene’s “FREE GIFT/SAVINGS VOUCHER” for Newsweek; an in-house effort for Outside; and Bill Christensen’s “QUALIFICATION NOTICE/PRIVATE OFFER” for Advertising Age and Fortune.

They mailed in an envelope and had the advantage of including BREs so subscribers could enclose payment. In addition, a short letter or premium slip could be added at little cost.

But, like the double postcard, no benefit-oriented, emotional letter is included. Rather it’s a wham-bam-thank-you-ma’am effort with the ultimate feature being substantial savings under the regular subscription rate and obscene savings under newsstand.

In “Grossman on Circulation 1994”—a major study of the prior year’s circulation efforts for business and consumer magazines—circulation wizard Gordon Grossman said, if you care about renewals, go with a full-dress package. Readers of long copy are better lifetime customers.

He published the results of a study (see below) that revealed over five years, a full-dress package was more profitable and brought in more subscribers than its dinky competitor.

This raises the question whether these numbers for the double postcard are relevant to the discount voucher? Yes, it’s true that the discount voucher allows for cash with order. But has anyone done a comparison of renewal numbers, renewal income and lifetime value over a five-year period? Does anybody care?
 

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