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Beware The Jane Syndrome

Engineering an End Run Around Common Sense

November 2007 By Denny Hatch
12

In the News

E*Trade Plunges 59% On Analyst Warnings; Bank Unit Goes Awry
Subprime-mortgage problems crashed into another unexpected corner of the financial industry, as online brokerage firm E*Trade Financial Corp.’s shares fell 59% over concerns about shaky securities on its books. E*Trade’s main business is online investing, but the company also runs a bank that makes and buys mortgage loans and invests in securities backed by mortgages. Late Friday, the company warned in a filing that problems with these investments would lead to bigger-than-expected losses, prompting a flurry of downgrades from Wall Street analysts. It was the latest ride on the roller coaster for a company that helped pioneer online stock trading, soared during the dot-com bubble, then crashed and ousted its chief executive. E*Trade made a comeback in the past few years, but yesterday’s trading wiped out $2.2 billion in market value as its stock fell $5.04 to $3.55 on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The shares are now back to their August 2002 level.
—Susanne Craig, The Wall Street Journal, November 13, 2007
E*Trade and Wachovia are the latest casualties of the subprime debacle—the bundling of bad mortgage obligations and selling them off as individual investment “opportunities” to greedy, senseless suckers.

It’s the biggest bust since the Dot-Com Implosion of 2000, where $4 trillion worth of capital evaporated, and harks back to “Tulip Mania” (1636-37) and the South Sea Bubble (1711).

How can this utter stupidity be explained?

Let’s start with the rarified game of curling and a woman named Jane, whose last name I have mercifully forgotten.

What is going on in business is what I call “The Jane Syndrome.”

You’ll also find The Jane Syndrome in sports, investing, politics, government, fishing, religion, immigration and every other facet of the crazy world in which we live.

The Game of Curling
Curling is shuffleboard on ice played with 42-pound hunks of granite that players try to slide to a target 142-feet away and opponents try to knock out. The game originated in Scotland, where it was played for centuries on frozen ponds and lakes. The first in-print references to curling are found in the 17th century.

In a wing of the posh Darien (Conn.) Country Club was a charming little facility that was home to the Nutmeg Curling Club—enough ice for three games to be played side-by-side. Behind a big glass window was the “warm room”—a bar where smokers happily hastened their demise and drinkers could ward off the cold and colds by getting blotto.

Like any sport, curling is governed by written rules of play and many unwritten rules of etiquette that are passed down by word of mouth from generation to generation.

In the World Curling Federation’s “Rules of Play and Competition” is this key entry:
15.1 Should any situation occur which is not covered by the rules, the decision will be made by the umpire in accordance with fairness.

Informal, club curling games do not have umpires. Rather they are groups of ladies and/or gentlemen having a convivial bit of fun before hitting the bar. Everybody knows the rules and obeys them.

Except Jane.

The Jane Syndrome
When Jane and her husband—members of a beloved old curling club in New England—moved to Southern Connecticut, they were immediately embraced by the entire membership of Nutmeg, a club desperate for new members.

Jane, who was in her late 50s, signed up for the women’s curling league. Games took place weekday mornings or afternoons. Because of her experience, she was immediately rated a “skip,” or team captain, the person that calls the strategy of the game and tells the other three members of her team what to do.

Takeaway Points to Consider:

* Creating a Jane Syndrome business based on an end run around accepted norms—the result of a new and narrow interpretation of accepted laws and rules—might make quick profits, but in the long term may be risky as hell.

* For example, common sense dictates that you do not create a business model based on bankrupting your customers.

* Jane Syndrome businesses are often horrendously complex and difficult to understand. They can fly in the face of the dictum of Fidelity Investment’s Peter Lynch: “Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.”

* Always picture the teeth marks in Hillary Clinton’s butt, the result of greedily taking bundled contributions from world-class con man Norman Hsu and the subsequent return by her of $850,000 to Hsu’s donor base.

* If you can’t play by the rules—and the rule of law—get in a game where you can.

Web Sites Related to Today's Edition:

Two Weeks That Shook the Titans of Wall Street
http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB119456941210287330.html

CEPR/ICMB Report the Need for Retaining Some Risk
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119491670333790709.html

Hillary’s Hsu: How a Business Flop Became Political Force
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119482937807389596.html

Did Roger Bannister Break the Four-Minute Mile on Drugs?
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/13/health/13essa.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

New Japanese Super-Harpoon for Killing Whales
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article722308.ece
 
12

COMMENTS

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Comment *
Most Recent Comments:
Barry Dennis - Posted on December 13, 2007
Denny, as usual you are one of the most astute observers of the marketplace I know. Kudos!
However, there is a very high risk opportunity for anyone with steel testicles; start/buy/invest in a "rollup" type business that has a Plan for acquiring defaults, managing them through the resale/rental process, and making a fortune.
When?
As soon as the financial institutions "bite the bullet" and take their "mark to market" which should be required under GAAP and FSAB, as well as SEC no later than Dec 31, 2007.
Oh, how the red ink will flow! Steel umbrellas will be required wear on Wall Street and Main Street, in London, Hong Kong, Berlin, Paris and other places.
The banks and S&L's don't want to be in the REO business any more today than they were in the 70s.
This is an opportunity similar to when the buyout groups were formed to take packages of defaulted credit card debt, and manage them through the collection process. RE is different, not the same level of markdowns (I hope!) but plenty of room for a profit opportunity.
Lawrence Hansen - Posted on November 16, 2007
"Picture the teeth marks in Hillary Clinton?s butt....." NOOOOOO!!!! Denny, what have you done?! Make the scary pictures in my head go away!!!

Seriously, the subprime pyramid scam was dependent on a continually rising housing market. So what if the rate on your interest-only balloon mortgage went up to 27% in three years if you could sell the house for 50% more. As usual, the little guy gets hurt, including a friend of mine who was a mortgage underwriter until last week.....now, she's been reassigned to the new growth area at her big-name bank employer--Collections.

Otherwise, I'm not sad to see the speculators and the "flippers" getting their tuckuses scorched. It took me until I was almost 40 to be able to afford my first house. The recent housing inflation has been anathema for those of us who simply want a HOME--a physical and psychological refuge from the lunacy of the world, a piece of the American dream--not a quick turn-around investment.

In the end, the real wealth of a nation is not in running scams, legal or otherwise, or speculating in investments, or even riding a bubble and getting out just before it pops. As my first college business professor pointed out, unless you actually make a physical product, you haven't created real wealth.
Clyde Goulet - Posted on November 16, 2007
There is enough blame to go around for everyone regarding the sub-prime mess. From the banks and mortgage companies that created the financing product, to the builders looking for ways to keep the construction machine chugging along to the consumer lured in by teaser rates without looking down the road to the first, second, and third bump in their interest rates.

For people looking to when this mess will end, if you keep in mind many of these types of mortgages were still being written the first half of 2006 and their rate increases don?t kick in until 2008, we are looking at a long term recovery period here.

The trickle down effect is that once the banks/mortgage companies foreclose they pump yet more REO properties back on the market, further depressing an already anemic real estate market.

The good news is that the Federal Government has not set up a new bureaucracy to handle this mess like they did with the Savings & Loan mess when the RTC was formed. The only question is how long before this sub-prime mess turns into a political football.

Doing business under the greater fool theory is never a receipt for long term success.
Brent D. Gardner, CLU, ChFC - Posted on November 15, 2007
A few years ago, I noticed that we had a new legion of nouveau riche: Mortgage brokers.

Many of the ones I met were making $10 an hour before their current position, where six figure incomes were common.

Apparently, for a while, anyone that could fog a mirror could make a LOT of money peddling mortgages over the phone.

These same people bought the most house they could afford, and knowing all the tricks, often overextended theirselves into jumbo mortgages that they only dreamed of a year or two earlier.

With rare exception, all of these people are now back to some job that pays $10 an hour, and their houses are in foreclosure.

I know I'm not the only guy that predicted this would happen.

The upside is I don't have to listen to several pikers trying to one up each other by bragging about how much money they made that month flipping houses anymore.

Get rich quick = a plan for get poor just as quick

Get rich slow = the old fashioned way, that created the overwhelming majority of millionaires in this country.

For what it's worth, the average millionaire in America lives in a relatively modest home, with more equity than debt. Source? The Millionaire Next Door, by Thomas and Stanley.
Chris - Posted on November 15, 2007
"Immigration That one word says it all."

Clearly not. What do you mean?
Paul Zink - Posted on November 15, 2007
Denny, given your examples of Tulipomania and the South Seas Bubble, you've clearly read Mackay's wonderful book, "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds". Perhaps the dot.com and sub-prime loan bubbles should be included in a new and revised edition?
Valerie - Posted on November 15, 2007
Here's a pretty recent example of a committee that's gotten together to "contain Jane" after the fact:

www.womma.org

Whole Foods Bans Execs from Posting on Message Boards

Earlier this year, Whole Foods CEO John Mackey didn't disclose his identity or connection to the company when posting about Whole Foods on a message board. In response, the company was accused of botching their ethics, and has responded by banning its executives from posting on third party sites altogether. On his blog today, former WOMMA CEO Andy Sernovitz questions this action, and suggests training employees on how to do it right instead.
Bernie Malonson - Posted on November 15, 2007
Denny,

I think what is most surprising of all to me is how quickly common memory seems to fade, especially in the face of greed.

The Leverage Buy Out, Junk Bond and Savings and Loan scandals must seem like quaint memories these days.

The Dot Com meltdown however is still very recent. Yet, when I see all the hype around Social Networking and Web 2.0, it seems to me, here we go again.

Until the next scandal, bubble, mania.

Bernie

PS: If common sense is so common, why is it seemingly so rare?
Bilou - Posted on November 15, 2007
Taxes. Imagine if everyone paid a flat rate of their income, instead of Congress passing another zillion laws to pad the wallets of their rich cronies. There IS room for some exception/addition, such as incentive to save for retirement (IRAs), deductions for donating to charity, etc., but you shouldn?t have to have a degree in accounting or hire a high priced CPA to do your taxes?or wonder if you were taken to the cleaners by the IRS yet again this year because you didn?t know about code 5S8Y003-K42.
John Jervis - Posted on November 15, 2007
Good, clever, article, but too simplistic.

One: There was fraud. Appraisers upped the values over actual value to qualify houses and borrowers for loans. Then the seller, buyer and/or broker took their cuts. That's what the issue is with WaMu.

Brokers "fudged" credit apps to make loans happen, especially for flips.

Second: Greed. Properties were being bought to "flip" (speculation). Speculators deserve to lose their money as opposed to the "victims" whose mortgage payments are on houses worth less than they were when bought.

Third: Different than the stock bubble, the properties are still worth money - the old "their not making anymore of it" idea. The bricks and morter exist.

Fourth: Caveat emptor. We can't keep bailing out stupid people. Why do people like you and I have to pay someone elses bills because they are stupid, while getting no help in paying ours?

I've often thought the best conditions in America are to be the poor/victim or wealthy.

The rest of us end up paying.
Heather - Posted on November 15, 2007
So true! It is great to know that more than one person feels the same way you do!
Margaret Cervarich - Posted on November 15, 2007
About: "Always picture the teeth marks in Hillary Clinton?s butt"

It offends me that you, and so many others, feel free to speak in such nasty terms about Sen. Clinton. I can't imagine your saying "Always picture the teeth marks in John McCain's butt" no matter what the indiscretion. Discourse about female politicians should be on the same level as discourse about male ones. Reporters, anchors, and citizens who use only her first name, call her a bitch, etc., simply reveal their own sexist bias and insecurity. One would have thought we had progressed further than that.
Click here to view archived comments...
Archived Comments:
Barry Dennis - Posted on December 13, 2007
Denny, as usual you are one of the most astute observers of the marketplace I know. Kudos!
However, there is a very high risk opportunity for anyone with steel testicles; start/buy/invest in a "rollup" type business that has a Plan for acquiring defaults, managing them through the resale/rental process, and making a fortune.
When?
As soon as the financial institutions "bite the bullet" and take their "mark to market" which should be required under GAAP and FSAB, as well as SEC no later than Dec 31, 2007.
Oh, how the red ink will flow! Steel umbrellas will be required wear on Wall Street and Main Street, in London, Hong Kong, Berlin, Paris and other places.
The banks and S&L's don't want to be in the REO business any more today than they were in the 70s.
This is an opportunity similar to when the buyout groups were formed to take packages of defaulted credit card debt, and manage them through the collection process. RE is different, not the same level of markdowns (I hope!) but plenty of room for a profit opportunity.
Lawrence Hansen - Posted on November 16, 2007
"Picture the teeth marks in Hillary Clinton?s butt....." NOOOOOO!!!! Denny, what have you done?! Make the scary pictures in my head go away!!!

Seriously, the subprime pyramid scam was dependent on a continually rising housing market. So what if the rate on your interest-only balloon mortgage went up to 27% in three years if you could sell the house for 50% more. As usual, the little guy gets hurt, including a friend of mine who was a mortgage underwriter until last week.....now, she's been reassigned to the new growth area at her big-name bank employer--Collections.

Otherwise, I'm not sad to see the speculators and the "flippers" getting their tuckuses scorched. It took me until I was almost 40 to be able to afford my first house. The recent housing inflation has been anathema for those of us who simply want a HOME--a physical and psychological refuge from the lunacy of the world, a piece of the American dream--not a quick turn-around investment.

In the end, the real wealth of a nation is not in running scams, legal or otherwise, or speculating in investments, or even riding a bubble and getting out just before it pops. As my first college business professor pointed out, unless you actually make a physical product, you haven't created real wealth.
Clyde Goulet - Posted on November 16, 2007
There is enough blame to go around for everyone regarding the sub-prime mess. From the banks and mortgage companies that created the financing product, to the builders looking for ways to keep the construction machine chugging along to the consumer lured in by teaser rates without looking down the road to the first, second, and third bump in their interest rates.

For people looking to when this mess will end, if you keep in mind many of these types of mortgages were still being written the first half of 2006 and their rate increases don?t kick in until 2008, we are looking at a long term recovery period here.

The trickle down effect is that once the banks/mortgage companies foreclose they pump yet more REO properties back on the market, further depressing an already anemic real estate market.

The good news is that the Federal Government has not set up a new bureaucracy to handle this mess like they did with the Savings & Loan mess when the RTC was formed. The only question is how long before this sub-prime mess turns into a political football.

Doing business under the greater fool theory is never a receipt for long term success.
Brent D. Gardner, CLU, ChFC - Posted on November 15, 2007
A few years ago, I noticed that we had a new legion of nouveau riche: Mortgage brokers.

Many of the ones I met were making $10 an hour before their current position, where six figure incomes were common.

Apparently, for a while, anyone that could fog a mirror could make a LOT of money peddling mortgages over the phone.

These same people bought the most house they could afford, and knowing all the tricks, often overextended theirselves into jumbo mortgages that they only dreamed of a year or two earlier.

With rare exception, all of these people are now back to some job that pays $10 an hour, and their houses are in foreclosure.

I know I'm not the only guy that predicted this would happen.

The upside is I don't have to listen to several pikers trying to one up each other by bragging about how much money they made that month flipping houses anymore.

Get rich quick = a plan for get poor just as quick

Get rich slow = the old fashioned way, that created the overwhelming majority of millionaires in this country.

For what it's worth, the average millionaire in America lives in a relatively modest home, with more equity than debt. Source? The Millionaire Next Door, by Thomas and Stanley.
Chris - Posted on November 15, 2007
"Immigration That one word says it all."

Clearly not. What do you mean?
Paul Zink - Posted on November 15, 2007
Denny, given your examples of Tulipomania and the South Seas Bubble, you've clearly read Mackay's wonderful book, "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds". Perhaps the dot.com and sub-prime loan bubbles should be included in a new and revised edition?
Valerie - Posted on November 15, 2007
Here's a pretty recent example of a committee that's gotten together to "contain Jane" after the fact:

www.womma.org

Whole Foods Bans Execs from Posting on Message Boards

Earlier this year, Whole Foods CEO John Mackey didn't disclose his identity or connection to the company when posting about Whole Foods on a message board. In response, the company was accused of botching their ethics, and has responded by banning its executives from posting on third party sites altogether. On his blog today, former WOMMA CEO Andy Sernovitz questions this action, and suggests training employees on how to do it right instead.
Bernie Malonson - Posted on November 15, 2007
Denny,

I think what is most surprising of all to me is how quickly common memory seems to fade, especially in the face of greed.

The Leverage Buy Out, Junk Bond and Savings and Loan scandals must seem like quaint memories these days.

The Dot Com meltdown however is still very recent. Yet, when I see all the hype around Social Networking and Web 2.0, it seems to me, here we go again.

Until the next scandal, bubble, mania.

Bernie

PS: If common sense is so common, why is it seemingly so rare?
Bilou - Posted on November 15, 2007
Taxes. Imagine if everyone paid a flat rate of their income, instead of Congress passing another zillion laws to pad the wallets of their rich cronies. There IS room for some exception/addition, such as incentive to save for retirement (IRAs), deductions for donating to charity, etc., but you shouldn?t have to have a degree in accounting or hire a high priced CPA to do your taxes?or wonder if you were taken to the cleaners by the IRS yet again this year because you didn?t know about code 5S8Y003-K42.
John Jervis - Posted on November 15, 2007
Good, clever, article, but too simplistic.

One: There was fraud. Appraisers upped the values over actual value to qualify houses and borrowers for loans. Then the seller, buyer and/or broker took their cuts. That's what the issue is with WaMu.

Brokers "fudged" credit apps to make loans happen, especially for flips.

Second: Greed. Properties were being bought to "flip" (speculation). Speculators deserve to lose their money as opposed to the "victims" whose mortgage payments are on houses worth less than they were when bought.

Third: Different than the stock bubble, the properties are still worth money - the old "their not making anymore of it" idea. The bricks and morter exist.

Fourth: Caveat emptor. We can't keep bailing out stupid people. Why do people like you and I have to pay someone elses bills because they are stupid, while getting no help in paying ours?

I've often thought the best conditions in America are to be the poor/victim or wealthy.

The rest of us end up paying.
Heather - Posted on November 15, 2007
So true! It is great to know that more than one person feels the same way you do!
Margaret Cervarich - Posted on November 15, 2007
About: "Always picture the teeth marks in Hillary Clinton?s butt"

It offends me that you, and so many others, feel free to speak in such nasty terms about Sen. Clinton. I can't imagine your saying "Always picture the teeth marks in John McCain's butt" no matter what the indiscretion. Discourse about female politicians should be on the same level as discourse about male ones. Reporters, anchors, and citizens who use only her first name, call her a bitch, etc., simply reveal their own sexist bias and insecurity. One would have thought we had progressed further than that.