Beware The Jane Syndrome
Engineering an End Run Around Common Sense
November 2007 By Denny HatchIn the News
E*Trade Plunges 59% On Analyst Warnings; Bank Unit Goes AwrySubprime-mortgage problems crashed into another unexpected corner of the financial industry, as online brokerage firm E*Trade Financial Corp.’s shares fell 59% over concerns about shaky securities on its books. E*Trade’s main business is online investing, but the company also runs a bank that makes and buys mortgage loans and invests in securities backed by mortgages. Late Friday, the company warned in a filing that problems with these investments would lead to bigger-than-expected losses, prompting a flurry of downgrades from Wall Street analysts. It was the latest ride on the roller coaster for a company that helped pioneer online stock trading, soared during the dot-com bubble, then crashed and ousted its chief executive. E*Trade made a comeback in the past few years, but yesterday’s trading wiped out $2.2 billion in market value as its stock fell $5.04 to $3.55 on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The shares are now back to their August 2002 level.
—Susanne Craig, The Wall Street Journal, November 13, 2007
It’s the biggest bust since the Dot-Com Implosion of 2000, where $4 trillion worth of capital evaporated, and harks back to “Tulip Mania” (1636-37) and the South Sea Bubble (1711).
How can this utter stupidity be explained?
Let’s start with the rarified game of curling and a woman named Jane, whose last name I have mercifully forgotten.
What is going on in business is what I call “The Jane Syndrome.”
You’ll also find The Jane Syndrome in sports, investing, politics, government, fishing, religion, immigration and every other facet of the crazy world in which we live.
The Game of Curling
Curling is shuffleboard on ice played with 42-pound hunks of granite that players try to slide to a target 142-feet away and opponents try to knock out. The game originated in Scotland, where it was played for centuries on frozen ponds and lakes. The first in-print references to curling are found in the 17th century.
In a wing of the posh Darien (Conn.) Country Club was a charming little facility that was home to the Nutmeg Curling Club—enough ice for three games to be played side-by-side. Behind a big glass window was the “warm room”—a bar where smokers happily hastened their demise and drinkers could ward off the cold and colds by getting blotto.
Like any sport, curling is governed by written rules of play and many unwritten rules of etiquette that are passed down by word of mouth from generation to generation.
In the World Curling Federation’s “Rules of Play and Competition” is this key entry:
15.1 Should any situation occur which is not covered by the rules, the decision will be made by the umpire in accordance with fairness.
Informal, club curling games do not have umpires. Rather they are groups of ladies and/or gentlemen having a convivial bit of fun before hitting the bar. Everybody knows the rules and obeys them.
Except Jane.
The Jane Syndrome
When Jane and her husband—members of a beloved old curling club in New England—moved to Southern Connecticut, they were immediately embraced by the entire membership of Nutmeg, a club desperate for new members.
Jane, who was in her late 50s, signed up for the women’s curling league. Games took place weekday mornings or afternoons. Because of her experience, she was immediately rated a “skip,” or team captain, the person that calls the strategy of the game and tells the other three members of her team what to do.
Takeaway Points to Consider:
* Creating a Jane Syndrome business based on an end run around accepted norms—the result of a new and narrow interpretation of accepted laws and rules—might make quick profits, but in the long term may be risky as hell.* For example, common sense dictates that you do not create a business model based on bankrupting your customers.
* Jane Syndrome businesses are often horrendously complex and difficult to understand. They can fly in the face of the dictum of Fidelity Investment’s Peter Lynch: “Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.”
* Always picture the teeth marks in Hillary Clinton’s butt, the result of greedily taking bundled contributions from world-class con man Norman Hsu and the subsequent return by her of $850,000 to Hsu’s donor base.
* If you can’t play by the rules—and the rule of law—get in a game where you can.
Web Sites Related to Today's Edition:
Two Weeks That Shook the Titans of Wall Streethttp://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB119456941210287330.html
CEPR/ICMB Report the Need for Retaining Some Risk
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119491670333790709.html
Hillary’s Hsu: How a Business Flop Became Political Force
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119482937807389596.html
Did Roger Bannister Break the Four-Minute Mile on Drugs?
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/13/health/13essa.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
New Japanese Super-Harpoon for Killing Whales
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article722308.ece



